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B2 · Unit 20 · 43 words, 3 texts with translation

Say how likely something is

Talk about probability and guesses: what's possible, what's unlikely, and how to stop overthinking when there's no proof yet.

Texts in this unit

Grammar in this unit

Maybe: which verb form after puede que, quizá, tal vez and a lo mejor

You already know quizá(s), tal vez, a lo mejor and the set phrase puede que (B1, unit 24): they all mean "maybe". What's new is which verb form comes after each one.

Why it matters: a friend doesn't answer, the train is late, and we spend the whole day guessing. From the verb form, a Spanish speaker hears how sure you are. English "maybe" never changes the verb, so this takes some practice.

WordsForm after themExample
puede que, es posible que, es probable que, es improbable que, es dudoso quealways the subjunctivePuede que esté ocupado. — He might be busy.
quizá(s), tal vezboth: the normal form (indicative) means "I think so", the subjunctive means "who knows"Quizá está en casa. — He's probably at home. Quizá esté en casa. — He might be at home.
a lo mejor, igual (colloquial), seguramentealways the normal form (indicative)A lo mejor está liado. — Maybe he's busy.

More examples:

  • Es posible que el tren llegue tarde. — The train may be late.
  • Tal vez tengas razón. — Maybe you're right.
  • Igual llego un poco tarde. — I might be a little late. Use igual only with friends.
  • For something that has already happened, use haya + past participle (unit 9): Puede que se le haya olvidado. — He may have forgotten.

Three fine points:

  • if quizá or tal vez comes after the verb, only the normal form works: está enfermo, quizá ("he's sick, maybe");
  • igual in the sense of "maybe" goes before the verb. Don't confuse it with me da igual — I don't care;
  • es obvio que, está claro que, seguro que are no longer a guess but a fact, so the normal form follows: es obvio que está enfadado ("it's obvious he's angry"). But es inexplicable que — "it's inexplicable that" — is a judgment (unit 7), and the subjunctive follows it.

A common mistake is using the subjunctive after a lo mejor because you feel unsure. But a lo mejor always takes the normal form: not ✗ a lo mejor venga, but a lo mejor viene. And the other way around: not ✗ puede que viene, but puede que venga.

Seguramente — "probably", not "surely"

The word seguramente looks like "surely, for sure": after all, seguro means "sure". That's a trap. In everyday speech seguramente means "probably, most likely": the speaker is almost sure but won't promise anything.

Why it matters. A repairman says seguramente iré mañana. That's not a promise, just "I'll probably come tomorrow". When you hear seguramente, ask again: ¿Seguro? ("Are you sure?")

After seguramente comes the normal form of the verb, often the future tense:

  • Seguramente está en una reunión. — He's probably in a meeting.
  • Seguramente le llamarán la semana que viene. — They'll probably call you next week (formal).
  • Seguramente no ha visto el mensaje. — He probably hasn't seen the message.

How to say how sure you are:

How sureWords
for sureseguro que + normal form, sin duda, estoy seguro / segura de que
probablyseguramente, probablemente
maybea lo mejor, quizá, puede que

Compare the same sentence:

  • Seguro que te contesta hoy. — He'll definitely answer you today.
  • Seguramente te contesta hoy. — He'll probably answer you today.

A common mistake is saying "I'll definitely come" as ✗ seguramente vendré. A Spanish speaker hears "I'll probably come" and won't count on you. Say seguro que vengo or vendré, seguro.

Words in this unit

  • la probabilidad — probability, chance

    Hay mucha probabilidad de lluvia el domingo. — There's a high chance of rain on Sunday.

  • improbable — unlikely, improbable

    Es improbable que llame hoy. — He's unlikely to call today.

  • obvio — obvious, clear

    Es obvio que está cansado. — It's obvious he's tired.

  • dudoso — doubtful, questionable

    Su excusa me parece dudosa. — His excuse seems questionable to me.

  • la suposición — assumption, guess

    Eso es solo una suposición. — That's just an assumption.

  • la hipótesis — hypothesis, theory

    Mi primera hipótesis es que está muy ocupado. — My first hypothesis is that he's very busy.

  • la teoría — theory

    Tengo una teoría sobre por qué no contesta. — I have a theory about why he isn't answering.

  • la certeza — certainty

    No tengo la certeza de que venga. — I'm not certain he'll come.

  • la intuición — intuition, gut feeling

    Mi intuición me dice que pasa algo. — My intuition tells me something's going on.

  • el indicio — sign, hint, clue

    Hay indicios de que algo no va bien. — There are signs that something's wrong.

  • la coincidencia — coincidence

    ¡Qué coincidencia verte aquí! — What a coincidence to see you here!

  • aparentemente — apparently, seemingly

    Aparentemente, todo está bien. — Apparently, everything is fine.

  • malinterpretar — to misinterpret, to misunderstand

    Siempre malinterpreto sus mensajes. — I always misinterpret his messages.

  • exagerar — to exaggerate

    No exageres, no es tan grave. — Don't exaggerate, it's not that serious.

  • analizar — to analyze, to go over

    Voy a analizar el mensaje con calma. — I'm going to analyze the message calmly.

  • plantearse — to consider, to think about, to ask yourself

    Me planteo si debo escribirle. — I'm wondering whether I should write to him.

  • obsesionarse — to obsess, to get fixated

    No te obsesiones con el mensaje. — Don't obsess over the message.

  • influir — to influence, to affect

    El tiempo influye en mi humor. — The weather affects my mood.

  • comerse la cabeza — to overthink, to rack your brain

    No te comas la cabeza, seguro que está ocupado. — Don't overthink it, I'm sure he's busy.

  • ponerse en lo peor — to assume the worst, to expect the worst

    No te pongas en lo peor: seguro que hay una explicación. — Don't assume the worst: I'm sure there's an explanation.

  • dar por hecho — to assume, to take for granted

    Doy por hecho que vienes a la cena. — I'm assuming you're coming to dinner.

  • sacar conclusiones — to draw conclusions

    No saques conclusiones sin hablar con él. — Don't draw conclusions without talking to him.

  • en teoría — in theory

    En teoría, el autobús pasa cada diez minutos. — In theory, the bus comes every ten minutes.

  • en principio — in principle, for now, as things stand

    En principio, quedamos a las ocho. — As things stand, we're meeting at eight.

  • indeciso — indecisive, undecided

    Soy un poco indeciso con las decisiones importantes. — I'm a bit indecisive about big decisions (man speaking).

  • liado — busy, swamped, tied up

    Estoy liado esta semana. — I'm swamped this week (man speaking).

  • distraído — distracted, absent-minded

    Estás muy distraído hoy. — You're really distracted today (to a man).

  • la pausa — pause, break

    Hacemos una pausa y seguimos luego. — Let's take a break and continue later.

  • la notificación — notification

    Me ha llegado una notificación. — I just got a notification.

  • el perfil — profile

    Su perfil dice que vive en Valencia. — Her profile says she lives in Valencia.

  • el vídeo — video

    Te mando un vídeo. — I'll send you a video.

  • el contexto — context

    Sin el contexto, la frase suena fatal. — Without the context, the sentence sounds terrible.

  • confuso — confusing, unclear; confused

    El mensaje es muy confuso. — The message is really confusing.

  • ambiguo — ambiguous

    Su respuesta fue ambigua. — His answer was ambiguous.

  • mental — mental

    La salud mental es importante. — Mental health is important.

  • el psicólogo — psychologist

    Mi hermana es psicóloga. — My sister is a psychologist.

  • la terapia — therapy

    Hago terapia desde marzo. — I've been in therapy since March.

  • la depresión — depression

    Estuvo con depresión un año. — She had depression for a year.

  • la autoestima — self-esteem

    Tiene la autoestima muy baja. — He has very low self-esteem.

  • inexplicable — inexplicable

    Es inexplicable que no conteste. — It's inexplicable that he isn't answering.

  • el presentimiento — feeling, hunch, premonition

    Tengo un presentimiento raro. — I have a strange feeling.

  • olvidadizo — forgetful

    Mi padre es muy olvidadizo. — My dad is very forgetful.

  • acaso — really, actually (in reproachful questions)

    ¿Acaso crees que no me importa? — Do you really think I don't care?

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